By Katie Butler | February 2026
If you spend any time on social media or cable news, you’ve probably seen the headlines: “California exodus continues!” or “Hundreds of thousands flee the Golden State!”
And the data backs it up — sort of. The U.S. Census Bureau just released fresh migration numbers, and according to the latest state-to-state data, 662,053 people moved out of California last year. Texas, Arizona, Nevada, Washington, and Florida were the top destinations. Net domestic migration — the difference between people leaving and people arriving — was roughly 230,000 more people out than in.
Those are real numbers. But here’s what the headlines miss: those numbers don’t tell the Sacramento story. In fact, if you’re buying or selling a home in our market, the migration data might be one of the most encouraging things you’ll read all year.
Yes, People Are Leaving California. But It’s Not 2021 Anymore.
Local appraiser Ryan Lundquist — whose Sacramento Appraisal Blog is one of the best data-driven real estate resources in the region — put it perfectly in his recent analysis: “Leaving California is still a thing, but it’s nothing like 2021.”
During the pandemic, remote work exploded, mortgage rates dropped below 3%, and people who had always dreamed of leaving suddenly had the freedom and financial incentive to do it. That was the peak of the California exodus. It’s calmed significantly since then.
Why? Because the conditions that fueled that wave have changed. Mortgage rates are now in the 6% range, which means moving to a new state often means trading your locked-in low rate for a much higher payment. Remote work has pulled back, with many companies requiring at least a hybrid return to the office. And frankly, many of the people who were going to leave already did — the “pull-forward” effect that analysts talk about.
As Lundquist pointed out, California almost always sees negative net domestic migration — in fact, over the past 35 years, there have been only three positive years. This isn’t new. It’s structural. And importantly, it hasn’t stopped California home prices — or Sacramento home prices — from appreciating steadily over time.
The Part Nobody Talks About: Sacramento Is a Destination
Here’s where it gets really interesting for our local market. While California as a whole loses residents to other states, Sacramento is gaining residents from within California — particularly from the Bay Area.
According to Redfin’s migration data, Sacramento was the #1 most-searched destination in the entire country for homebuyers looking to relocate between October and December 2025. It beat out Phoenix, Nashville, and Austin. Sacramento topped them all!
The Sacramento region attracts an estimated 20,000 new residents per year from the Bay Area and other coastal California markets. And the math makes it easy to understand why. The median home price in San Francisco is around $1.3-1.5 million. In Sacramento? Around $535,000. A Bay Area buyer can sell a modest home and purchase a significantly larger, nicer property here — often with money left over.
This is a dynamic I see firsthand in my business. I regularly work with buyers relocating from the Bay Area to neighborhoods like Pocket-Greenhaven, Land Park, Curtis Park, and East Sacramento. They’re drawn to the tree-lined streets, the community feel, and the fact that their dollar goes dramatically further. Many of them can’t believe what they can get here compared to what they left behind.
What This Means for Sacramento Home Prices
So if people are leaving California, why aren’t Sacramento home prices dropping? Because the migration picture is more complicated than one number.
People leaving California are heading to Texas, Arizona, and the Southeast — states with even lower costs of living. These outbound movers aren’t typically leaving Sacramento; they’re leaving the Bay Area and Southern California.
People moving to Sacramento are coming from higher-cost California markets, bringing equity and higher budgets. They’re the demand that supports our prices.
People staying in Sacramento are largely locked into low mortgage rates and aren’t listing their homes, which keeps inventory tight.
The result? Sacramento’s median home price has held steady around $535,000, homes are selling at or near asking price, and well-prepared properties in desirable neighborhoods are still seeing competitive offers. Most forecasters project prices will appreciate a modest 3-4% through 2026 — healthy, sustainable growth.
Why Housing Costs Drive the Whole Story
The Census Bureau data and research from the Public Policy Institute of California both point to the same primary reason people leave: housing costs. Not politics, not weather, not taxes (though those play a role) — housing affordability is the number one factor.
This is actually good context for Sacramento buyers who wonder if they’re making a smart investment. Sacramento remains one of the most affordable major metros in California, and that relative affordability is precisely what drives inbound migration here. As long as the Bay Area stays expensive (and it will), Sacramento will continue to attract buyers looking for more space, more home, and a lower cost of living — without leaving California entirely.
It’s also worth noting: 408,445 people moved to California last year. The state isn’t emptying out. Texas was the number one sender of new California residents (the joke, as Lundquist pointed out, is that these are all the people moving back).
What This Means If You’re Selling in Sacramento
If you’re a homeowner thinking about selling, the migration data should give you confidence. Sacramento’s demand isn’t based on speculation or hype — it’s driven by a fundamental affordability advantage that isn’t going away. Buyers are actively searching for homes here, and many are coming from markets where they’re used to paying significantly more.
That said, you still need to prep your home properly and price it right. The days of throwing a home on the market and getting 15 offers are behind us. But in today’s market, a well-prepared home in a good Sacramento neighborhood is still going to attract strong interest — especially from buyers relocating from higher-cost areas who see the value immediately. See: Should I make repairs before selling my Sacramento home?
What This Means If You’re Buying in Sacramento
If you’re a buyer — whether you’re relocating from the Bay Area or you’ve been renting in Sacramento — the data tells you that this market has strong fundamentals. You’re buying in a city that is the number one relocation destination in the country, with steady demand, constrained supply, and a long runway of affordability compared to coastal California.
Will prices come down? Most forecasters say no — modest appreciation is the expectation. And if mortgage rates ease toward the mid-5% range later this year as some analysts project, expect more competition as additional buyers enter the market.
The window to buy before that next wave of demand is right now.
The Bottom Line
The “California exodus” is real — but it’s nuanced. People are leaving California, yes, but they’re primarily leaving the most expensive coastal markets. Sacramento isn’t losing residents to other states; it’s gaining them from within the state. Our market sits at a sweet spot: affordable enough to attract Bay Area buyers, desirable enough to hold value, and fundamentally strong enough to weather the broader state trends.
Don’t let a headline scare you away from what the data actually shows: Sacramento real estate is in a strong position heading into 2026.
Whether you’re thinking about buying or selling in Pocket-Greenhaven, Land Park, Curtis Park, East Sacramento, or anywhere in the Sacramento area — I’d love to help you understand what these trends mean for your specific situation. Let’s connect.
https://www.realtor.com/news/trends/net-domestic-migration-state-data-census-2025/
Katie Butler is a top 2% Sacramento Realtor with over 12 years of experience specializing in the Pocket-Greenhaven, Land Park, Curtis Park, East Sacramento and West Sacramento neighborhoods. She leads Katie Butler Real Estate with Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate. Katie loves to educate her clients so they are empowered to make great decisions.